One major disclosure that I came across through Wikileaks concerns Sino-North Korean relations, as expressed by South Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister, Chun Yung-woo. Chun told the U.S. Ambassador to South Korea, Kathleen Stephens, that he predicted that China would not be able to save the DPRK from collapse after Kim Jong Il’s death. He also predicted that in the event of a DPRK collapse, there was not a high possibility of People’s Republic of China military intervention, since China’s strategic economic interests are now aligned with those of the United States, Japan, South Korea, and not North Korea. Chun stated that North Korea had already economically collapsed, and that with the death of Kim Jong Il, North Korea would politically collapse in “two to three years.”
According to an unidentified source in Republic of Korea’s media reports, China was planning to invest 10 billion U.S. dollars in North Korea. Chinese banks and multinational companies were close to completing negotiations with North Korea’s Daepung International Investment Group to move forward with the investments made in the construction of railroads, harbors, and houses. Chun dismissed these ROK reports of China pumping 10 billion U.S. dollars into the North Korean economy as having “no substance.” He also expressed that China does not have that big of an influence on North Korea as most people believe. Instead, this is what he thinks:
Beijing had “no will” to use its economic leverage to force a change in Pyongyang’s policies and the DPRK leadership “knows it.” Chun acknowledged that the Chinese genuinely wanted a denuclearized North Korea, but the PRC was also content with the status quo. Unless China pushed North Korea to the “brink of collapse,” the DPRK would likely continue to refuse to take meaningful steps on denuclearization. (source)
Chun also argued that the People’s Republic of China would prefer a reunified Korea under Seoul’s control and “anchored to the United States in a benign alliance.”
This cable is relevant to North Korea because it illuminates the true relations it has with China, and maybe relations that are opposite of what most people seem to believe. Many believe that China is North Korea’s biggest ally and major supporter of its economy, but this cable reveals that that fact may not hold true. In the case of a DPRK collapse, will China be there to help sustain the reverberations and aid in the recovery process? According to this cable, China may not be there to hold North Korea’s hand. Instead, China’s interests now lie with the United States and South Korea as the PRC would prefer a reunified Korea controlled by Seoul. Although this cable was solely based on the speculations of South Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister, who knows how North Korea will view China now? Is China on the other side?
The DPRK now had little value to China as a buffer state — a view that since North Korea’s 2006 nuclear test had reportedly gained traction among senior PRC leaders.
control, conflict & censorship 